Will China Invade Taiwan in 2026? Geopolitical Insights & Game Theory

Erasmus GamorJanuary 5, 20261 Mins read12

A comparison of China's military drills around Taiwan and its economic industrial base.

The “Venezuela Precedent” and Taiwan

The start of 2026 has been marked by a dramatic escalation in U.S. foreign policy following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While some Western analysts fear this “boots on the ground” approach might embolden or trigger a Chinese move on Taiwan, Professor Jiang Xueqin argues that from a game theory perspective, an invasion would be “idiotic” for Beijing.

Historical comparison of China's naval exercises around Taiwan over the past decade.

Why War is “Idiotic” (Game Theory Perspective)

Professor Jiang outlines several critical reasons why China is unlikely to launch a forceful reunification:

Regional Nemeses: China is surrounded by geopolitical rivals, including Japan, India, and Russia. A U.S. withdrawal from East Asia would “unleash” Japan to rebuild a powerful navy, potentially blockading China’s vital trade routes—a catastrophic scenario given China’s dependence on imported food.
Economic Vulnerability: China’s industrial base is concentrated along the coast, making it highly susceptible to destruction by the U.S. Navy within 24 hours in a full-scale conflict.
Prosperity Over Hegemony: The CCP’s primary goal is ensuring peace and prosperity for its citizens to maintain government legitimacy. Disrupted trade and “pariah state” status would destroy 40 years of economic progress.

Infographic showing the economic interdependence between China, Taiwan, and the U.S. in 2026.

The “Japan Factor”

A major shift in the China-Japan relationship occurred in late 2025 when Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, stated that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” allowing for a military response. This led to a severe diplomatic crisis, including boycotts and military drills specifically designed to deter “outside military intervention”—a warning targeted more at Tokyo than Taipei.

The geographical relationship between Japan and Taiwan illustrating the strategic importance of the Strait of Malacca.

The Status Quo: A Win-Win

Despite military drills, President Trump has noted that China has conducted similar naval exercises for over 20 years. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people remain largely satisfied with the current status quo, benefiting from deep trade ties with the mainland.