Is China Invading Taiwan in 2027? Inside the “Justice Mission 2025” Rehearsal

The New Year’s Eve Surprise: Justice Mission 2025

While the world celebrated the start of 2026, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted the most aggressive military rehearsal for a Taiwan invasion in history. Labeled “Justice Mission 2025,” this operation was specifically designed to demonstrate China’s ability to keep American forces out while strangling the island into submission.

The Numbers: 130 Warplanes and 27 Missiles

The scale of the exercise was unprecedented:

• Aerial Armada: 130 warplanes, including J-16 multi-role fighters and H-6 strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
• Live-Fire Strikes: 27 ballistic missiles and long-range rockets fired into Taiwan’s contiguous zone, some landing just 12 nautical miles from the coast.
• Naval Blockade: 14 warships forming a ring around the island, supported by maritime militia and Coast Guard vessels to create a “gray-zone” blockade.

The Catalyst: The $11.1 Billion US-Taiwan Arms Deal

The escalation was a direct response to the United States’ approval of the largest arms sale in Taiwan’s history on December 17, 2025. This package included:

• HIMARS & ATACMS: Precision strike missiles capable of hitting military targets 300km deep into mainland China.
• Advanced Drones: Combat drones and command-and-control software designed to modernize Taiwan’s asymmetric defense.

The Strategy: Economic Stranglehold over Amphibious Assault

Military analysts noted that Justice Mission 2025 focused on a blockade rehearsal rather than a traditional beach landing. By sealing off the three major deep-water ports—Keelung, Kaohsiung, and Taichung—China can theoretically collapse Taiwan’s economy without landing a single soldier.

• Energy & Food: Taiwan relies on imports for 98% of its energy and 70% of its food. A sustained blockade would lead to rationing and catastrophe within weeks.

The Global Stakes: TSMC and the “Davidson Window”

The 2027 timeline, often called the “Davidson Window,” refers to the tipping point when China’s military modernization may give Beijing the confidence to move against Taiwan. The global impact would be total:

• Semiconductor Crisis: TSMC produces 90% of the world’s most advanced microchips. If these facilities are destroyed or captured, the global economy plunges into a depression.
• Geopolitical Realignment: The US security architecture in Asia, built over 70 years, would collapse if America is seen abandoning Taiwan.